A newly formed cyclonic storm and second brewing tropical threat will combine to threaten parts of India and Sri Lanka with flooding and mudslides into next week.
Cyclonic Storm Ockhi developed near Sri Lanka on Thursday and has produced rounds of heavy rainfall across the country and neighboring parts of southern India since early in the week.
A slow track to the west will take the cyclonic storm south of India before it turns northward and moves off the coast of western India into early next week.
This track will result in daily downpours across Sri Lanka and southern India through at least Saturday.
The heaviest rain is expected across Sri Lanka and southern and central Tamil Nadu as well as southern Kerala in India.
This includes areas from Puducherry, Madurai and Kochi southward. Rainfall of 50-100 mm (2-4 inches) will be common with local amounts reaching 200 mm (8 inches).
There will be a high risk for local flash flooding along with an elevated risk for mudslides.
Lighter rainfall will expand farther north and impact locations from Chennai to Bengaluru, Coimbatore and Kozhikode.
These areas will get generally less than 50 mm (2 inches) of rainfall through Sunday.
While this first tropical threat sits over the Arabian Sea early next week, a new threat will approach Sri Lanka and eastern India.
Tropical development is possible as early as Thursday or Friday near the Andaman and Nicobar islands in the Bay of Bengal.
This potential cyclone will then have an opportunity to organize further and strengthen as it crosses the southern Bay of Bengal this weekend.
Eastern India will be at risk for impacts from the tropical cyclone as early as Monday night, with areas from Tamil Nadu to Andhra Pradesh at highest risk for flooding and damaging winds.
Depending on the exact track, flooding rainfall could extend inland across southern India or spread northward into Telangana, Chhattisgarh and Orissa later week.